Never underestimate the man who overestimates himself. — Charlie Munger

Never underestimate the man who overestimates himself.

Author: Charlie Munger

Insight: We tend to dismiss overconfident people as delusional—and often they are. But there's a strange alchemy that happens when someone genuinely believes they can do something difficult: that belief sometimes becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. They try harder, persist longer, and don't talk themselves out of things before they've even started. Meanwhile, the more realistic person sits safely on the sidelines, accurately predicting all the reasons something won't work. The catch is that overestimators often fail spectacularly. But they also fail forward. They attempt things that cautious people never will, which means they occasionally stumble onto wins that wouldn't have happened otherwise. It's not that delusion is a virtue—it's that the person who massively overestimates their abilities is at least playing a different game. They're taking swings. The realist might be right about the odds, but they're also guaranteeing their own stagnation. This doesn't mean you should become reckless or delusional. It means recognizing that a certain amount of irrational confidence is actually a feature, not a bug, in anyone trying to do something that matters. The people who change things often started by overestimating what one person could accomplish.

Source: Daily Journal shareholders meeting, 2020